|
Market: Net
paste pricing is in the $0.39 - $0.40 / lb. range, FOB plant basis 31% NTSS
Industry: California came off a
large crop in 2007 but the expected large carryover into 2008 will be offset
by huge demand from the export market.
This demand is due to virtually every tomato growing region outside of
California
experience poor crop yields. This is
unprecedented in the California
tomato paste industry and will be interesting to see how long it
continues.
|
Million Tons Fresh Equiv.
|
98/99
|
99/00
|
00/01
|
01/02
|
02/03
|
03/04
|
04/05
|
05/06
|
06/07
|
|
U.S. Production
|
9.4
|
12.8
|
10.9
|
9.2
|
11.7
|
9.8
|
12.2
|
10.1
|
11.6
|
|
Plus: Carry-in
|
3.2
|
2.2
|
4.7
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
4.4
|
3.6
|
4
|
2.2
|
|
Total domestic Supply
|
12.6
|
15
|
15.6
|
13.8
|
15.2
|
14.2
|
15.8
|
14.1
|
12.7
|
|
Domestic Consumption
|
10.2
|
9.6
|
10.2
|
9.6
|
9.8
|
9.8
|
10.9
|
11
|
11
|
|
Net Exports
|
0.2
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
|
Total Disappearance
|
10.4
|
10.3
|
11.0
|
10.3
|
10.8
|
10.7
|
11.8
|
11.9**
|
11.5**
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carryout
|
2.2
|
4.7
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
4.4
|
3.5
|
4
|
2.2
|
1.2
|
|
Carryout as % of Demand
|
21%
|
46%
|
42%
|
34%
|
41%
|
33%
|
34%
|
19%
|
10%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Estimated Ave. Bulk Paste Price
|
$0.43
|
$0.32
|
$0.28
|
$0.30
|
$0.29
|
$0.28
|
$0.29
|
$0.30
|
$0.38+
|
Weather: California has had rain the last few weeks and this
has helped ease concern a water shortage.
Harvest, Production & Paste: Planting of tomato seed is set to commence. Growers have demanded higher pricing for
tomatoes and they will receive it.
Concerns of a water shortage in California,
increase input cost combined with alternatives such as wheat, corn and
safflower give growers options that did not within just the last few years.
Please feel free to contact me if you
have any questions. I can be reached
at: CWoolf@losgatostomato.com
Chris Woolf
January 2008
Home
|
